Friday, October 16, 2009

In Case you love percentages: factoring in shorthanded goals to PP and PK%

One more stats nerd post and I'll be this guy's wingman.

Note: like the last post, these are stats from the 2008-09 season although going forward I'll be using 2009-10 stats ...

Unless I come up with one more stat that I publicly deem dopey while ultimately find semi-clever, this should be the last stat introducing post for the foreseeable future.

The last flaw with simply listing PK and PP% is that shorthanded goals aren't factored in (or not seamlessly) to the equation. Even if SHG are rare, they can be gigantic for momentum. See: Jordan Staal in Game 6 of the SCF.

More than that, though, I think it's a subtle reflection of good coaching and/or heady players. For instance: the Philadelphia Flyers are known for having a scary-aggressive PK with Mike Richards but they're also amazingly efficient on their own PP. Unless I read incorrectly, they only allowed 1 SHG last season!

So I decided to see how much SHG negatively affect a PP and positively affect a PK. (The stat is the same as PP% except it's PPG scored - SHG allowed divided by PP opportunities.)

Let's take a look at True Powerplay Percentage (or should it be called "Net" PP% ... or the PP Efficiency Rating? I dunno, True PP% sounds pretty cool doesn't it?)

Click to enlarge TRUE PP%

What I like about these stats is that they create a more pronounced "upper class" or elite group of PP units.

The Red Wings' absurd PP is reflected better here: they are heads and shoulders above the rest of the league (as they should be). It also reflects just how bad the Blue Jackets' PP was; 12% is pretty bad as it is but the team let up a lot of SHG too. When you think about it, when the CBJ went on the PP something good would happen only nine percent of the time. (LOL)

I still think sheer quantity (ultimately PPG - SHG allowed) is the best way to judge a team's PP unit but this is pretty interesting, too.

True Penalty Kill %/PK Efficiency Rating/PK Success Level is the same as PK% except it's PPG allowed - SHG scored divided by Times Shorthanded.

Click to enlarge True PK%

The order of best PK teams doesn't change a ton here, but it again distinguishes the GREAT PK units. The Wild's special teams, again, were just amazing last year.

At some point I might try to come up with a "magic number" for special teams percentages combined. Is a great overall special teams a combined 110% or ... what?

Jeez, I'm a dork.

What do you think, though? Is this interesting or as fun as eating a lifetime supply of microwave re-heated pizza crusts?

1 comment:

joseph burrell said...

oh my God! I feel a little bit bad because I am so laughing at that little pig kid's photo haha, it is similar to a funny post at hostpph.com LOL