Thursday, July 9, 2009

The beauty of pro-cap-stination (Anaheim to Minnesota)


To make this more manageable, we decided to break this post up into two posts. Today, we'll cover the first half of the NH-aLphabet with Anaheim through Minnesota. Tomorrow, we'll put up the rest. Eventually, we'll probably merge the two for one mega post/reference point. Maybe.

We've hit the Chicago Blackhawks pretty hard lately, but don't get us wrong: there are plenty of teams that will be sweating bullets come July 2010. In fact, there probably aren't many quality teams who won't feel the pinch if the cap plummets to $50 million as some have said.

Still, like an advantageous liquidator or a savvy pawn shop owner, one GM's emotionally crippling loss could be another GM's team-building gain.

Naturally, no GM worth his fancy necktie would admit to waiting 'til next year to scavenge the rotting carcasses of poorly structured teams. Yet, that's the tantalizing potential scenario:

"Oh, so you want to get rid of an overpriced player? Sounds good. To whom should I address this seventh-road draft pick and deluxe set of luggage?"

The smart teams are doing one of three things:

1. Stockpiling good value contracts for younger players and 1-year deals for veterans (best example: Anaheim).

2. Despite being close to the cap ceiling, there are obvious "tiers" for the team and they are only giving their core guys big contracts (Pittsburgh and Detroit are doing a solid job of this, even if it forces some tough departures).

3. Licking their chops by amassing a ton of cap space and adding high-value, entry-level contracts through the draft (the New York Islanders might be the champions of this strategy if they're smart).

OK, now that we've introduced the concept and discussed the generalities, let's take a brief snapshot of each team's 2010-2011 cap commitments to see if we can target some potential "buyers." Naturally, a lot can change in a mere week let alone twelve months.

(Cap commitments came mostly from NHLSCAP.com, with CapGeek.com serving as the occasional pinch hitter. Both are great resources for cap info.)

Anaheim
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment:
just under $29 million
Players under contract: 7 forwards, 2 D and one goalie
Noteworthy players: Getzlaf, Perry, Giguere (probable trade), Whitney, Lupul
Most important RFA/UFAs: Ryan, Hiller
Buyer potential: Strong, budget permitting

Atlanta
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment:
just under $20 million
Players under contract: 3 forwards, 4 D, no goalies (Kari Lehtonen still needs to be re-signed)
Noteworthy players: Antropov, White, Enstrom, Hainsey, Bogosian
Most important RFA/UFAs: Lehtonen, ILYA KOVALCHUK, Kubina
Buyer potential: Strong, budget permitting

Boston
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment:
about $35 million
Players under contract: 5 forwards, 2 D and one goalie
Noteworthy players: Bergeron, Ryder, Krejci, Chara, Thomas, Wideman
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Kessel still not signed, MARC SAVARD, Lucic
Buyer potential: Seller

Buffalo
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $38 million
Players under contract: 6 forwards, 2 D and one goalie
Noteworthy players: Vanek, Pominville, Connolly, Roy, Miller, Rivet
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Support players
Buyer potential: Treading water or Seller

Calgary
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $42.8 million
Players under contract: 5 forwards, 5 D and two goalies
Noteworthy players: Iginla, Bouwmeester, Kipper, Phaneuf, Regehr, Langkow, Sarich
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Jokinen
Buyer potential: Treading water or Seller

Carolina
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $30 million
Players under contract: 8 forwards, 2 D and 0 goalies
Noteworthy players: Staal, Cole, Rod the Bod, Pitkanen,
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Ward, Whitney
Buyer potential: Mild Buyer or Treading water

Chicago
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $43 million
Players under contract: 7 forwards, 4 D and 2 goalies
Noteworthy players: Hossa, Campbell, Huet, Versteeg, Barker, Seabrook, Byfuglien, Sharp, Bolland, Sopel
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Kane, Toews, Keith
Buyer potential: Seller

Colorado
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $25 million
Players under contract: 4 forwards, 2 D and 1 goalie
Noteworthy players: Stastny, Smyth, Hannan, Lilies
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Hejduk
Buyer potential: Buyer

Columbus
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $34 million
Players under contract: 7 forwards, 3 D and 2 goalies
Noteworthy players: Nash, Mason, Umberger, Huselius, Commodore,
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Meh
Buyer potential: Buyer

Dallas
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $25 million
Players under contract: 4 forwards, 4 D and 0 goalies
Noteworthy players: Morrow, Richards, Ribeiro, Daley
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Turco, Eriksson, Ott, Neal
Buyer potential: Their owner might be having cash flow issues

Detroit
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $41.5 million
Players under contract: 8 forwards, 4 D and 2 goalies
Noteworthy players: Hank, Datsyuk, Franzen, Rafalski, blah blah they're still loaded
Most Important RFA/UFAs: LIDSTROM
Buyer potential: Treading water/mild BUYERS???

Edmonton
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $43 million
Players under contract: 7 forwards, 4 D and 1 goalie
Noteworthy players: Horcoff, Penner, Bulin Wall, Hemsky, Lubo, Souray, Gilbert
Most Important RFA/UFAs: The dudes Edmonton tried to trade for Dany Heatley, other supporting cast members
Buyer potential: Treading water/mild Sellers(?)

Florida
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $45 million
Players under contract: 9 forwards, 4 D and 2 goalies
Noteworthy players: Booth, Horton, McCabe, Vokoun, Ballard, Weiss
Most Important RFA/UFAs: not really
Buyer potential: Treading water

Los Angeles (this one might need some double-checking, admittedly)
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $41 million
Players under contract: 9 forwards, 4 D and 1 goalies
Noteworthy players: Brown, Kopitar, Smyth, Handzus, Doughty, Scuderi
Most Important RFA/UFAs: Frolov,
Buyer potential: Buyer

Minnesota
Current 10-11 Cap Commitment: about $32 million
Players under contract: 6 forwards, 2 D and 1 goalies
Noteworthy players: Havlat, PMB, Koivu, Burns, Schultz, Backstrom
Most Important RFA/UFAs: CLUTTERBUCK, Zidlicky
Buyer potential: Mild Buyer

(The rest on Friday!)

3 comments:

Anaheim Calling said...

ARTHUR:
I'm feeling greedy looking at the numbers. Now, I want Keith AND Byfuglien. I can't pass on a former Roseau Ram.

Plus, the prospect of taking on Byfuglien's 3M might actually grease a deal for Keith's rights. Though, if they can't move any players, I'd think they'd trade Keith at the deadline.

jamestobrien said...

Just about every Hawks blogger/fan/pundit seems to advocate a Byfuglien trade so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Of course, those people also ADAMANTLY deny that the Hawks will lose any of Kane, Toews or Keith so mind your grains of salt.

Anaheim Calling said...

ARTHUR:
On a skating team, Byfuglien's probably overpaid. I could see why Chicago would choose a Versteeg type of forward over a converted forward like Byfuglien (though I still have no idea why they choose to tie themselves to Cam Barker instead of Keith). But I think the Ducks could use him properly. Just having that logjam with front-of-the-net awareness is worth 3M.